Ukraine-Russia and the 'Streetlight Effect'
Making sense of a seemingly senseless conflict. For regular people.
If you have not, please read the first part to this post:
In the early morning hours of February 24, 2022 the over 165,000 Russian troops that had spent weeks parked along Ukraine’s eastern and northern borders began their invasion.
I would like to acknowledge that I truly didn’t feel as though Russia would invade Ukraine. It didn’t seem to make any sense to me, until it actually happened. In my last post, I didn’t quite have the full context of the factors involved in the build up that has led to this war. I do still believe that Putin and the Russian Federation have ambitions of creating their own self sufficient economic market (member states including: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Ukraine), in order to increase Russia’s economic power. However, I believe that the expansion of Russia’s influence is still a long-term goal for Putin, and not a goal that lies in the present.
Before I really get into this, I feel as though I have to make myself perfectly clear to you all. My criticisms of NATO, the American Government, and their escalation of this conflict is not meant in a pro-Russian way. I am not pro-Russia, I am simply pro truth. It seems as though that every person who challenges the mainstream on this topic is being called some Pro-Russian Nazi. This is so irresponsible, and honestly, the only reason the media pushes this kind of rhetoric is because they need to keep public opinion on their side, on the side of NATO and its allies. When I criticize NATO, I do so because everyone needs to understand that their hands are just as bloody as the Russians. Just like any conflict or war that we have seen throughout the history of humanity, there are two sides to everything, and the pursuit of truth will actually teach us all lessons moving forward. If we cannot hold ALL of the perpetrators of this conflict accountable, then we will give those who walk away clean the permission to do something like this again. I am not taking a pro-Russian stance. I am taking a pro-human stance. A pro-citizen stance. This war is nothing but a conflict between members of the ruling class. The class that has never, and will never care about people like you and I. We are the ones who make our cultures, nations, cities, and communities what they are. After all, we are the only ones who live in them.
In light of the invasion, the American mainstream media, seemingly, cannot believe what is happening, with many outlets describing the actions of Putin as senseless. Many have been comparing Putin to the likes of Hitler, that he is an insane, bloodthirsty madman hell bent on re-establishing the former Soviet Union. Much of the focus in the media has been revolving around the inspiring stories of the Ukrainian people, who are putting their lives on the line to defend the land that they call home. This is an important part of the story to cover, especially, because those Ukrainians are the people that will suffer the most in this conflict. Since the first Russian boot stepped foot in Ukraine, the entirety of the west has been on the side of the Ukrainian people. Anti-war, pro-Ukrainian demonstrations have been taking place all over Europe, America, and even in major cities across Russia. As they should, I truly believe that anyone with a heart cannot help but be on the side of the Ukrainian people. However, what I cannot even begin to fathom, is how people think that this conflict came out of nowhere, and that America and NATO have somehow been able to escape all culpability.
The main takeaway for me so far is that we are all caught up in this concept called ‘The Streetlight Effect’. As a nation, we have been inundated with images of war, violence, and death at a constant, relentless pace for the last 20+ years. Fear and trauma are incredibly powerful tools that the media has been using to make sure that the Military Industrial Complex has had the public’s permission to commit egregious crimes against innocent people across the world. All for money and power. We all agree on this don’t we? Iraq? Afghanistan? Do either of those ring a bell? The streetlight effect is exactly how our government was able to get our permission. In hindsight, we can look back and see how our government lied to us. Thousands of Americans lost their lives, millions of civilians were either killed, wounded, or had their entire lives completely destroyed. Saddam didn’t have WMDs, and somehow we were convinced that every citizen of these nations were members of Al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, military contractors and corporations walked away with their pockets overflowing with profits. At the time, and similar to news coverage today, all that the news and our government threw into the public psyche were messages of fear, violence, and impending doom.
So what is the streetlight effect? The streetlight effect, or the drunkard’s search principle, is a form of observational bias that, in essence, occurs when people try to find answers within the information that is right in front of them, or is most readily available. Here is the well-known joke that functions as a perfect example of this concept:
A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a streetlight and asks what the drunk has lost. He says he lost his keys and they both look under the streetlight together. After a few minutes the policeman asks if he is sure he lost them here, and the drunk replies, no, and that he lost them in the park. The policeman asks why he is searching here, and the drunk replies, "this is where the light is".
This principle is constantly playing out in real time, as the news plays the role of the streetlight perfectly. They pump out their own narratives, on both sides, as to hope that the public only search’s for answers or explanations (of which there are none) within their news coverage. On the other side of that coin, when individuals decide to go searching in the park, the place in which the keys were lost, the mainstream media and their talking heads will attack those people relentlessly until they are discredited into oblivion, by simply calling them a “Conspiracy Theorist”, “Fascist”, “Nazi”, “Pro-Putin”, or “Racist”. All in an attempt to keep the public under the streetlight.
This concept is well described, especially in context of military intelligence, in a lecture titled “Survival Heuristics: My Favorite Techniques for Avoiding Intelligence Traps - SANS CTI Summit 2018”. It was given by Carmen Medina, a retired CIA analyst with over 32 years of experience within the agency.
(((Please watch this, it is incredibly insightful)))
In this lecture she goes on to describe the way in which the CIA approaches analyzing intelligence. She gives an example of a time where an analyst turned in a report that listed the reason for an event to be “unknown”, to which she called the analyst to her office and explained that this could not be the case, and that everything happens for a reason. In reality, what is not understood is the “causality chain”, or the series of events that culminate into a significant event.
You may be asking yourself why this is important, what could we possibly learn from this? Well, let’s reframe how we think about it. Simply swap the CIA with regular citizens like you and I, and swap the incoming intelligence for the mainstream media. After all, the news and social media are the lenses through which regular citizens come to understand society and world at large. Wouldn’t that just be considered civilian level intelligence? It seems to make sense to me. If the CIA uses these techniques to find the truth, why shouldn’t we?
SO…
How are we supposed to attempt to digest this war? If you are totally in on the mainstream narratives (under the streetlight), you are to believe that this is Putin making an attempt at rekindling the Soviet Union in its totality. That this war is for absolutely zero reason other than Putin’s aggression toward the west and his hatred for ethnic Ukrainians.
What follows, is what I found in the park.
In my last post on this issue, which I published almost a month ago to the day, I made the assessment that Putin was applying pressure on the west in order to establish a free trade alliance much like the now dissolved Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) with the goal of creating a self sufficient economic market. This new alliance would allow Russia to increase their power globally. Ukraine would pay a massive part in that new alliance. I thought that Putin was making an offensive move.
Since that last post I have done a lot of digging into the eastward expansion of NATO, and my opinion has since changed. In any conflict there are two sides to the story, and since the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO has broken promise after promise in terms of their expansion. This isn’t to say that Russia hasn’t broken any promises, but NATO has, by far, been the aggressor in their pursuit of backing Russia into a corner. I now believe that the moves made by Putin in the past week are of retaliation. Not to suggest that these actions are justified, but that he may feel as though he has no other option. A scary position for a powerful dictator to be in, for our sake.
As I began writing this, I stumbled across this lecture given by John Mearsheimer at the University of Chicago in 2015, in which he describes how Ukraine is being led “down the primrose path” toward a war such as this. One that will lead to immense suffering.
(((Very worth watching)))
If you don’t have the time, here is my own summary of events that I gathered through my own research.
A document that was declassified in 2017 shows that in 1990, NATO leaders made promises to then Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, that NATO would not expand beyond East Germany. President Putin, at the Munich Conference on Security Policy in 2007 stated, “What happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact? Where are those declarations today? No one even remembers them. But I will allow myself to remind this audience what was said. I would like to quote the speech of NATO General Secretary Mr. Woerner in Brussels on 17 May 1990. He said at the time that: ‘the fact that we are ready not to place a NATO army outside of German territory gives the Soviet Union a firm security guarantee.’ Where are these guarantees?”
At the time of Putin’s statement, NATO had already expanded quite far to the east. In March of 1999, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland became full members of NATO, moving their sphere of influence to the border between Ukraine and Poland. On March 29 2004, NATO made the Baltic, and former Soviet nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania full members (other members added were Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Thus creating a new situation in which NATO and Russia share a border. At the time, Russia was much too weak to do anything substantial in terms of blocking their neighbors from joining, however, one can only assume that they saw this action as a great threat. Looking at the map of NATO members, if Belarus and Ukraine were to join. NATO could cut Russia off completely, and control almost every inch of land between the Baltic and the Black Sea. At the 2008 Bucharest summit, proposals were made to allow both Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO. Putin was very angry and opposed these measures. Neither would go on to become full members, but on suggestion alone, it showed just how determined the American government and NATO were to back Russia into a corner, with the goal being exactly what we are seeing now.
Ukrainian and Russian militias have been fighting since the Ukrainian Revolution (aka the “Revolution of Dignity”) that began in 2013. On the night of November 21, 2013, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his government suspended preparations for signing an agreement with the European Union. In doing some digging, it seems as though the decision not to sign the deal came down to both pressure from the Kremlin, and that the size of the loans from the IMF (International Monetary Fund, which, by the way, is not a good organization, considering they have funded the regimes behind almost every atrocity and genocide in the post WW2 era. Thats a whole other can of worms, just look it up, if you have the time) would destroy the Ukrainian economy. Instead they would make a total 180 and look to Russia for economic support.
This led to mass protests erupting across Kyiv. To sum up this revolution, Yanukovych was obviously pro-Russian. The CIA also played a major part. It was essentially a coup, and there are many parallels between the Ukrainian revolution, and other coups executed across Europe in the 1950s and 60s (A leaked phone conversation between Victoria Nuland, the lead US diplomat during the revolution, confirms direct US involvement in the 2014 coup. During the call, Nuland is heard instructing coup leaders on US choices to form the new government). Yanukovych was eventually impeached after fleeing Kyiv, after protestors took control of the city. After the fallout, Ukraine held an election in which Petro Poroshenko won, receiving 54.7% of the vote. Yanukovych fled to Russia where he now lives in exile.
(Side Note: Russia didn’t technically invade Crimea, some 2000 troops were already there. Russia signed a lease deal with the Ukrainian government to station their ‘Black Sea Fleet’ at a Naval base in Sevastopol. The Russian troops that were already in Crimea just captured military checkpoints. Not to say that those actions were justified at all, but Russia didn’t “invade” like the media made it seem like they did.)
This was, in my estimation, the final straw for Putin. Ukraine was, in essence, under the complete control of the west. Since 2014, Putin and the Russian Federation have been preparing for this moment.
Honestly, when I reassess my last post, it seems like the measures I assumed Russia would use in an offensive, more-so resemble steps taken to survive what they are going through right now.
Since the invasion began, there have been massive sanctions placed on Russia by almost every western nation. Russia’s banks have even been taken off SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), which is essentially the global banking system that records and communicates banking transactions.
Putin, along with the other Russian oligarchs, absolutely had to know these sanctions would come, and they wouldn't have invaded if they didn’t think they could win this stand off.
In spite of all these sanctions, nothing has been done in terms of sanctioning Russia’s energy sector. The invasion has come at the perfect time, as Big Oil has seemingly been winning their global lobbying crusade against Nuclear and other forms of alternative energy. At the turn of the year, Germany (most reliant on Russian energy) closed down 3 of their 6 remaining Nuclear Power Plants. Europe and the west are now more reliant on oil than ever. America even increased their importation of Russian oil by 28% in 2021. I am sure that major oil corporations are loving the rise in oil prices caused by Russia’s invasion. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that back door deals between Russia and major oil corporations are being done as we speak. I mean, corporations don’t have to abide by the same rules as nations. You should reference my last post to see that Russia is the source of almost all of Europe’s energy supply, as they control the Druzhba Pipeline, and the major sources of oil for said pipeline. Those being in Central Asia, mostly in Kazakhstan. Russia, in partnership with the Kazakh government, also have a back door, through the Kazakhstan-China pipeline to sell oil directly to China, who have remained neutral in sanctioning Russia (oddly convenient).
Russia has also stopped exporting ammonium nitrate, the major component in fertilizer, of which they account for 2/3 of the worlds production. This will cause a rise in farming costs which will inevitably lead to higher food prices across Europe.
In terms of the invasion itself, I don’t really feel the need to touch on it. The news has been doing a pretty good job of that actually, as many brave Ukrainians have been keeping the world up to date. Russia does seem to be getting crushed, but do they really need to take over? All Russia really needs to do is keep their troops in Ukraine. With Russian boots on the ground, NATO and its allies cannot enter the country, if they do, they will genuinely trigger World War 3. Thus, by simply remaining in the country, they can continue to keep this sanction riddled economic standoff going.
So what are we supposed to think?
I mean, I cannot believe this is where we are in human history, especially in modern western society. War is so outdated. Well, I guess that isn’t entirely true. Since the end of World War II, America has been at odds with the concept of communism, with Russia being the figurehead. America has committed egregious acts of violence across the globe in the name of democracy. Now, I am not against democracy, I think democracy is the best governmental system that the human race has invented, however, democracy only works when everyone within the government is honest and well intentioned. We all know, that in America, this certainly is not the case, and when it comes to America’s foreign policy and “spreading of democracy” across the globe, nothing could be farther from the truth.
How many attempts at “spreading democracy” and “liberating” do we need to see in order to realize that it isn’t actually about democracy or liberation?
Afghanistan, Albania, Argentina, Brazil, Cambodia, Chile, China, Colombia, Cuba, El Salvador, France, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Korea, Laos, Libya, Mexico, Myanmar, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Panama, The Phillipines, Syria, Uruguay, Yugoslavia, and Ziare. Just to name a few.
I fear as thought Ukraine might need to be added to this list.
In my opinion, we cannot only point the finger at Russia. This seems to be NATOs fault, as they have by far, been the aggressors since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. We know that America and its allies have been fighting Russia and communism since the Russian Revolution in 1917, and this seems to be the west’s final offensive. The goal being to oust Putin, and wipe out Russia as we currently know it. For now, all we can do is wait. This will be an economic and financial standoff, a true test of resolve in the face of immense suffering, suffering that will only be felt by civilians who want nothing more than peace.
Ukraine, sadly, seems to be the sacrificial lamb. A lamb that the west has been all too willing to offer, and one that Russia has been waiting to slaughter since the last time they did in the late 1920s (the Holodomor).
This is a horrible situation, and I hope that the Putin and the leaders of NATO can find a sliver of humanity in their black, cold hearts, to negotiate a resolution. We can all coexist, that is my belief. If the heads of Russia, and the heads of our government and corporations weren’t so hellbent on controlling everything under the sun, we could live in peace. Sadly, these psychos just cannot help themselves.
Right now, we should all be sympathizing with the Ukrainian people. I hope that whatever comes next, doesn’t lead to the deaths of innocent civilians. They have suffered enough. The entire world has suffered enough at the hands of evil people in powerful positions. I hope that one day we can all come to that realization, that day being as soon as possible.
Do you see how powerful the streetlight effect can be? Nothing that I have stated in this post, and in my last post will make its way into the mainstream, and if it does, it will be shut down. Just like the wars in the Middle East, the people at the helm of the American government, and the heads of NATO couldn’t care less about the people of Ukraine. The commentery, images, and videos of this war circulating throughout the news and social media will only portray the incredibly traumatizing images of Ukrainian citizens who have been forced to defend their land. That is the only use that NATO has for Ukraine in this war. Imagery. Instead of questioning the West’s role in this conflict, their aggression, their escalation, we will have our heart strings tugged in a way that will blind us from the truth. That is the most despicable part to me. Manipulating the emotions of good, honest, loving people so that a few evil people can make incredible amounts of money, and succeed in their goals to wield more power and control over us all.
I also feel the need to shed some light on the overarching, and most important factor that keeps the majority of society under the streetlight. That being, most people are just too busy. I totally understand. I know that I am very lucky and very privileged to be in a position where I can look at things from all angles. I can go look in the park. Most people are not in that position, which is why I feel a great deal of responsibility with all of this. I am doing my best to dig toward the truth. Of course, I will never have all of the absolute answers, nobody will. The pursuit of truth, unbiased, objective, apolitical truth is the only way in which we will be able to make an attempt at solving our problems. I hope you have taken this post as I have meant it, that being, that I am simply presenting you with information, you can choose to trust my interpretations or not. If any of this post compels you do do anything, it is to think for yourself. Do your own research. Dig into the topics I have presented. You may even find things I have not, and I would encourage anyone who does to reach out to me.
Through the coming days and into the hopefully swift end to this insane war, All that I can really say is to tread lightly, and always remain skeptical, and pay attention to how your emotions change with each passing headline. There is an astonishing amount of misinformation out there, fake photos, fake videos, and fake claims.
This is an incredibly difficult and concerning time in history. The world has inflicted seemingly irreversible amounts of damage to our psyches. Fear, being more abundant than ever. We all have deep wounds, in making an attempt to heal those wounds, I believe that we will all become stronger. Moving forward, the best thing we can all do is make an attempt at becoming more in touch with our physical reality. Strengthen the relationships you have with the ones you love, and be the one to bring some levity to this difficult thing called life. The world needs it.