So You're Saying There's a War?
As the Russia-Ukraine Conflict intensifies, the question remains as to what ulterior motives may intensify these tensions.
War. What A Racket. I may be a bit hyperbolic in making that statement, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have an element of truth. For the better part of the last 70-80 years America, as we know it, has been at war with Russia… sort of. I mean, yes we had a Cold War, but what was the real enemy? The real enemy in that conflict was the idea of “communism”. Which, speaking in a quantifiable sense, is absolutely befuddling. Yet, at the same time it makes all of the sense in the world. Why fight against one nation, when you can fight an idea. You cannot kill, destroy, torture, air-strike, assassinate, dominate, or conquer an idea. Ideas aren’t tangible objects. Thus, the American government and its cronies have seemingly given themselves permission to perpetuate an infinite war. A war that has no bounds. A war that has led to the utter destruction of the pocketbooks and the emotional wellbeing of entire generations of Americans. Regular citizens today have been made to pay for a war that began with the intention of never-ending. If there is to be a war, my generation (Generation Z) will pay for it heavily, as if we aren’t paying for enough things already. What A Racket.
So what are we supposed to think now? Russia is threatening to invade Ukraine. I mean we are on the verge of a possible WW3 for crying out loud. If you pay attention to any news outlets, you will hear talk of imminent conflict as Russia has moved over 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border, some of those being stationed in Belarus which borders Ukraine to the north, and others stationed in the annexed Crimean Peninsula. So far, our government response has been little more than meetings and writing letters. Although, Biden has been contemplating sending 8,500 NATO troops to the border, and there has also been a large shipment of, and i’m not making this term up, “Lethal Aid” that has been delivered to Ukraine from the Baltic nations. The next question that you could ask would be, well, what could possibly be next? It seems as though the limit has been reached. That meaning, that unless Russia takes their troops across the border and embarks on a full scale invasion of Ukraine, then, for now, this is as far as this conflict would go. So why am I writing something about an issue that seemingly has all of the factors laid out for the entire world to see? Well, if we are going to make an honest attempt at understanding an issue we must not ignore history, and we must certainly ignore politicians. If we fail to do those those things, we will be left without any room for questions, because we will not know where to look.
When it comes to matters like this one, I always find that the best question you can ask, tends to be the most simple one. Like, “What is Russia’s goal?”. That may seem like a silly question, especially if you go off of what the news has already stated. However, if you attempt to answer a question such as this in its full context, you will find that it is strikingly similar to putting bacteria under a microscope. Just looking at the culture with the naked eye you will see little more than some sort of blob. Maybe you can even have a guess as to which kind of bacteria it might be. However, with the right amount of magnification and focus, when you look through the lens of the microscope you will begin to see just how intricate said bacteria actually is. What seemed to be just a blob expands out into something that almost boggles the mind in its complexity. The way in which all of the tiny organisms work together in concert brings an element of beauty to the bacterias purpose, which is to grow and survive. The microscope is just the tool, in the same way that questions and curiosity are tools through which we can understand incredibly complex issues.
In order to answer the question of what Russia’s goal is, let us zoom out, and think about what the main goal of any empire or world superpower is. That goal being to hold power over the rest of the world. Russia is no different in that regard. I mean we are only 60-70 years removed from a time where it seemed as though Russia had true potential to become the most dominant force in the modern world. But, where does power lie? Power, in simple terms, hasn’t changed much since the inception of modern human civilization. Power lies in the hands of those with control over the most natural resources, and the strength of that power is judged by how effectively those with the power are able to protect said resources.
Now, I pose another question. What natural resource is so valuable it is worth going to war over? The answer to that question is one that we have all known for decades.
Oil.
Russia is a major player in the oil game. It is estimated that Russia accounts for 12% of the world’s oil production. The Natural Gas and Oil industry is the most dominant in terms of Russia’s export economy, with Crude Petroleum, Refined Petroleum, and Petroleum Gas accounting for 53.06% of their $407 billion in total exports (based on 2019 data). The power that controls this industry lies in the hands of the Russian Federation through a multitude of international state-run corporations. The largest of those being Rosneft, Lukoil, and Gazprom (the worlds largest gas exploration and production company). The way in which the Russian government is able to control every aspect of its resources is objectively fascinating. However, if we revisit the principle of power or rather Russia’s desire to wield more of it, the assertion that Russia would be content with what oil resources they already control is completely asinine. So, the next logical question to ask would be, “Where can Russia get more oil?”
We are just over 30 years removed from the end of the Soviet Union. As the Berlin Wall fell, 15 sovereign nations would be born in its midst. These nations include many places of intrigue today. The most important of them all currently being Kazakstan.
If you have been paying any attention to international news over the past few weeks you should have heard about the revolution that happened there on January 5th, 2022. This revolution was said, by many mainstream outlets, to have been caused by a rise in oil prices and public outrage with the political power still held over the Nur Otan Party (the only political party in the country) by former president Nursultan Nazarbayev. There were also claims that much of the public outrage actually stemmed from the Covid restrictions that were to be placed on the public that day. Kazakstan had been using this “covid tracking” system called Ashyq. This system was used by its citizens and came into play in public spaces where large numbers of people would congregate (i.e. markets, and karaoke clubs). The Ashyq app would give citizens badges (green, yellow, or red) that would determine their covid status and thus either permit or exclude them from these activities. On the 5th of January, current President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and the Kazakh government were going to expand these systems into other sectors of public life, including banking and other fundamental public resources. Now, this is all just surface level. The real question that needs asking here is how or why would a revolution like this be able to occur and how would it be so successful in such a short amount of time? Well, in press releases following the events that included the storming and burning of the capitol building in Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana) there were claims made by President Tokayev that foreign-trained “terrorists” were to blame for the uprising. As a result, the now former intelligence chief, Karim Massimov was arrested on charges of “treason”.
So why does all of this matter? What is the importance of this revolution? Who would be the major beneficiaries? When I began researching this subject, I decided that the best way to approach this issue would be to simply analyze Kazakhstan’s culture and economy.
Strategically, Kazakhstan is in a very important location. The Central Asian nation has borders with Russia to the north, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to the south, the Caspian Sea to the west, and most notably China to the east. Kazakhstan is also one of the most successful nations economically in the region. Kazakhstan has roughly 12% of the worlds Uranium deposits, and there are the largest producer of Uranium in the world. This is one element that has brought the nation a bit of wealth. However the vast majority of their wealth has come through oil, as 62.64% of the nations $60.3 billion in exports comes from Crude Petroleum and Petroleum Gas. I then looked for the largest oil company in the country, that being Tengizchevroil. Tengizchevroil has a very interesting ownership structure, as it is a joint venture split four ways. These owners being Chevron (50% stake), ExxonMobil (25% stake), LukArco (5% stake, owned by previously mentioned Lukoil, whose major beneficiary Vagit Alekperov is considered to be on of Russia’s “Oligarchs”), and most importantly KazMunayGas (20% stake, is a subsidiary of Samruk-Kazyna which is the Kazakh sovereign wealth fund, meaning it is owned by the government). Looking at this objectively, we can see that 75% of the largest oil company in Kazakhstan is owned by American corporate interests. This, compiled with the very real connections between the now considered “traitor” in former intelligence chief Karim Massimov, and both Hunter and Joe Biden raises some serious questions. Such as, did America instigate this revolution?
Throughout the 20th century, the United States and its intelligence services, most notably the CIA and NSA, went on an imperialistic crusade through most of South America as they were attempting to eliminate “communism” from the continent. The real purpose of this crusade was not for the benefit of “the people”, but rather in the interest of major multi-national corporations. Now, I won’t get too far into detail on this, because the amount of literature on this subject is vast (I would suggest the book ‘Confessions of an Economic Hitman’ by John Perkins, to start), but throughout my research in to this matter and the CIA’s “Operation Gladio”, that when looking at the events that transpired in Kazakhstan, this seems to follow the CIA’s governmental overthrow playbook to a tee. However, when looking into the culture of Kazakhstan at this moment in time, I came to find that the government had began to try and distance themselves culturally from Russia. The combination of different factors, such as, 75% of Tengizchevroil being owned by American interests, and the development of the true “Kazakh” culture, a government overthrow only truly makes sense for one nation. Russia. This point being driven home by the thousands of Russian troops that were sent in to quell the uprising.
This brings me to the most important tool that Russia has at its disposal. The Druzhba Oil Pipeline.
The Druzhba pipeline is the longest oil pipeline in the world and is the main source of oil for most of Western Europe. The pipeline stretches for some 2,500 miles from the eastern parts of Russia and runs through Western European countries such as: Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, before ending in both Karlsruhe and Rostock in Germany. This pipeline has many tributaries, and is the main mode of transportation for crude oil coming out of Central Asia. The majority of it coming from Kazakhstan.
Since World War II, we have not really see any direct “boots on the ground” conflicts between the militaries of any major world powers. Warfare, in the traditional sense, is relatively outdated. Much like the comparison between the tactics of the British Colonial Empire and the modern American Empire. The war tactics of empires today are all done through policy and finance. Hence the debt entrapment plots that worked so well to seize the natural resources of South America and put them in the hands of American Corporations. Thats what makes this conflict all the more strange to me. Is Russia really going to go to war? Seriously??? Or, is this supposed conflict all about leverage? I tend to believe the latter.
Leverage is an incredibly valuable commodity, meaning if you have leverage over a situation, you have the power to control the outcome. Since Russia holds control over the vast majority of the pipeline and the vast majority of the sources of said oil, they could threaten to cut the pipeline and basically strand all of Western Europe. This leverage compounds in strength when coupled with the fact that Western Europe has become increasingly dependent on oil in recent years. Some nations have been shutting down their Nuclear power plants. Germany shutdown 3 of their 6 Nuclear plants in recent weeks, and it doesn’t seem like it’s working out so well.
Now, do I think they will do this? No. However Russia has an incredible amount of leverage here. Russia can use this threat against NATO to get whatever it is that they want, essentially.
I understand that an easy counter to this would be that if Russia were to turn off the pipeline to Western Europe, Russia would also be screwed. They wouldn’t be able to make any money from the pipeline and thus shooting themselves in the foot. However, if Russia had the ability to sell oil somewhere else, they would still be able to use the Druzhba as leverage. That is the true importance of Kazakhstan.
Remember KazMunayGas? The company that has a 20% stake in Tengizchevroil (largest oil company in the country), and is a subsidiary of Samruk-Kazyna which is, in essence, the Kazakh Government? Well, KazMunayGas has a subsidiary company called KazTransOil, which also has a subsidiary company called Kazakhstan-China Pipeline LLP. Therefore, the Kazakh government is in control of a pipeline that stretches from the shores of the Caspian Sea, all the way across the country and into the city of Alashankou which is in the Xinjang region of China. This pipeline is also in partnership with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). So if Russia can control the Kazakh government, they can therefore continue to keep their leverage.
Now we arrive back at the question of, “What does Russia want?”.
So, in my opinion, we now understand the Druzhba is the strongest piece of leverage that Russia can use against NATO. But, what we have still not answered is the ultimate question of what Russia wants. In doing research on this subject I stumbled across an article which mentioned this defunct alliance called the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC). This was a regional organization between 2000-2014 that aimed for the economic integration of its member states. In essence, it was a NAFTA like organization made up of former soviet states. These nations included: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. I believe that Russia wants to establish a new, stronger version of the EAEC, one that includes Ukraine, as they refused to join the first time around. Maybe they’ll just call it the USSR. That would be hilarious.
Where does Ukraine fit into all of this? Well, from the perspective of leverage, they too are large producers of natural gas, and major sectors of the Druzhba run through the country. But, there are some other areas of intrigue. Ukraine has incredibly fertile soil, and a major sector of their economy revolves around farming and food related goods. Russia, on the other hand, does not have the right climate or soil for such farming endeavors. This being the reason that Stalin purposefully created a famine in Ukraine between 1932-33. Back then the Soviet Union was trying desperately to make it seem as though Communism was the superior form of government. They had American news correspondence in Moscow that were treated like royalty, as to not allow them to get a true understanding of the dire situation many citizens in the USSR found themselves in. At some point, the Soviet Government was running out of money, and in order to save face they would need as much money as possible. They turned to the fertile farmlands of Ukraine. In 1932 the Communist Party set incredibly high quotas for the amount of grain that Ukrainian villages had to contribute to the Soviet State. The quotas were so high that they were impossible to fill. As a consequence the Soviet government would confiscate seeds that were saved for planting, and even levied fines that would be paid in meat and potatoes as punishment for failing to meet those grain quotas. This left Ukrainians stripped of everything. An artificial famine was created, and over 10 million people starved to death. All of this was for the reputation of the Communist Party (I thought only capitalism was about exploitation???).
I’m not saying Russia is going to do this again. Not in the slightest, this is just a testament to the importance of Ukraine. They are the 3rd largest grain producer in the world. Russia will need to have a place within this new trade alliance that has the ability to grow large amounts of food, as Russia currently imports 40% of all its food. Theres no sense in expanding your empire if the people within its borders cannot be fed.
Ukraine is also incredibly important due to its population. This may seems strange, but bare with me. Currently, Russia has a population of just over 146 million people. In an article, Aleksey Kusch, a Kyiv-based analyst said that, “To create a self-sufficient market one needs a population of about 250 million”. He said this in reference to theories by Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman. So, how would Russia achieve that number of 250 million? A large part of that would be the roughly 42 million people that live in Ukraine. Other nations like Uzbekistan (roughly 35 million inhabitants), Kazakhstan (Roughly 19 million inhabitants), and Belarus (roughly 9 million inhabitants) would be included in such an economic alliance. If you add up all of those populations you will end up with roughly 251 million people, giving Russia the ability to have a truly self-sufficient market.
Another element to this is China’s involvement. They are currently, and have been for years, playing a very crucial role in all of this. China’s government is very clever, and in a sense, they have been acting in the exact same way that the American government did when the went galavanting through South America stealing natural resources. Back in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, American international engineering firms were very very very busy attempting to “modernize” certain nation’s economies and bring them on to the world stage (aka globalization). The best example would be Ecuador. Economists and Consultants who worked for engineering firms like like Bechtel (headquartered in Reston, Va., coincidentally in the same area as many military contractors) would go down and meet with government leaders and those who had control over natural resources. Now, these people were economists, but many of them were working at the behest of the CIA or NSA. Their objective was relatively simple. These Economists would draw up these massive proposals, and use macroeconomic models that were incredibly overestimated. These plans would be aimed at extracting as many natural resources as possible (Oil in Ecuador) in order to make enough to pay for all of these infrastructure projects, as well as make a profit. Also, these proposals would give benefits to the people by way of creating power plants, telecom infrastructure, roads, and clean water. Once the papers were signed, in this example, Ecuador would take out a massive loan from some international bank in order to pay for these projects. Then the engineering firms would get to work, and all of the government officials and industry leaders would have fat pockets full of money. Then as time would go on the nation wouldn’t be able to pay back the loan, as the loan was so massive that any money that was made by the government wouldn’t be enough to even pay back the interest. Eventually the nation would have to default on this loan, and as collateral for defaulting, they would, in essence have to forfeit their rights to their own natural resources. In Ecuador this led to a downward spike in quality of life and access to basic human necessities. Isn’t that fun?
China has been doing this all over the world in recent years, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa (look it up), as they look to expand the Chinese empire. The financial tool that they use is called the Chinese Development Bank (CDB).
The Chinese Development Bank has it’s imperial fingerprints all over this Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a world that is increasingly interconnected through globalization, the methods of traditional warfare have become less of a necessity. When talking about wars of the past few centuries, we haven’t kept finance in the front of our minds, or within the bindings of mainstream history textbooks. The use of finance plays the prominent role in modern conflicts. With the assertion that Russia is trying to form a new version of the EAEC, they will need financial backing that Moscow cannot provide. In each of the countries I listed as potential members (Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) the CDB has had some heavy involvement in many different projects. Belarus took $7.6 billion in loans from the CDB between 2000-2014 (coincidentally, the same years Belarus was a member of the EAEC). Their latest loan being in December 2020 for $500 million. The purpose of this loan was for “no explicit purpose”. Sounds like a rollover interest debt loan to me, but that is just speculation. In 2010, Kazakhstan’s largest mining company, Kazakhmys (Publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange as KAZ Minerals), took a $4.2 Billion loan from the CDB for the construction of two new facilities. Seems a bit large for a company of its stature. Other high value deals have been struck between the CDB and companies in Uzbekistan. This part could all be speculation, but if Russia is threatening war with Ukraine, and they are not financially able to fight on multiple fronts, why not just have China weaken these former soviet states from the inside by way of debt entrapment, and taking the rights to their natural resources. In order to get them back, China could push them to join Russia’s new free trade alliance. Now that’s leverage. It seems to be the way of the modern empire.
So what’s the conclusion? Well, if what Russia really wants is more power, both economically and politically, they will need to establish a self sufficient market. However they don’t have the population numbers, so they must create a new free trade organization that includes themselves along with Ukraine, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. NATO doesn’t want Russia to become more powerful and would certainly be against losing Ukraine as a potential NATO member. In order for this to happen, Russia needs leverage, which they have with the Druzhba Pipeline. They could cut Western Europe off if they wanted to, all they would need is to control Kazakhstan. Hence, the revolution. If they control Kazakhstan, they can maintain leverage due to the Kazakhstan-China Pipeline, as they will have a place to sell their oil. Otherwise Russia would collapse financially, and lose leverage. If they want Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine to join this new organization, they would need leverage. Leverage that the Chinese could give them by entrapping these countries in insurmountable debt, and thus giving these nations incentive to join such an organization.
Do I think we will go to war over this? I’m not sure, because I cannot see a non-violent way in which Ukraine joins such an organization. However, I’m sure Putin and the boys over at the Kremlin are doing everything in their power to find a way to take Ukraine. Whether that be invasion, or by installing a pro-Russian regime.
Whatever happens in the coming weeks or months, don’t expect the American media to stop the fear mongering. I mean the military contractors must be drooling thinking about how many tax dollars they will get if we went to war. Hell, they’ll make billions off of the threat of war, and the government just can’t wait to give them as much of our hard earner dollars as they can. Who knows, if they give contractors enough money, once they stop working for the government there might even be a nice cushy executive job at Lockheed Martin or Raytheon waiting for them. I mean Dick Cheney is THE prime example of that, and THEN he became VP!
This is just how things works, and it truly breaks my heart. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if this “War” is all just a bunch of hoopla. I mean, conveniently, we did just pull out of Afghanistan a mere 5 or so months ago. We need some reason to spend that $777.7 BILLION annual defense budget. The one that was increased despite us pulling out of a war.
How funny would it be if Biden called up Putin and was like, “Hey Vlad, you wouldn’t by any chance need a war would you? Or even just the threat a war, perhaps?”, then Putin says, “You know Joe, by-golly, we do need a war. I was just about to call you!”.
All I hope for is that the people of the Ukraine aren’t made to suffer. They’ve suffered enough, and they deserve the right to live in and celebrate their own culture(s), however they choose it to be. I hope that Americans aren’t made to pay for yet another pointless war, however, I may be wrong. I hope that you have taken this piece as I have meant it. I am just asking questions. I am always open to critique and debate. Like I have said in my other posts, I have no agenda. I’m just a guy who is infinitely curious, and incredibly intrigued as to how humanity, and the world works. I’m just doing some research. I advise you to do the same. It may even help you to make sense of your own life. I am a firm believer that trying to make sense of your own life and who you are as a person is more important than anything. We all need ourselves, and each other more than ever.
I just hope there isn’t a war.
That’s what every kind person what’s isn’t it? To live in a world without war, or at the very least, without pointless war. I hope that the people of Ukraine are allowed the freedom to live their way. That’s the goal for us all, truly. To live a life that brings you purpose, and is rooted with meaning. To be able to express yourself, without having someone else hold you down. I think so, at least.
If I had one more piece of advice for any of you, it would be to kick your feet up and have a Margarita. You might as well have some fun in these truly strange and troubling times.
- Josh Buda